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UFC Saudi Arabia predictions – MMA Fighting

Robert Whittaker went from one menacing middleweight trying to take his spot to a different.

Nothing is ever straightforward for “The Reaper,” who faces Ikram Aliskerov in the principle occasion of UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday. Whittaker was initially scheduled to battle Khamzat Chimaev in a bout with clear title implications, however with Chimaev compelled to withdraw attributable to an sickness, Whittaker now faces a lesser recognized opponent with little assure {that a} win propels him to the highest of the contender ladder.

Making the state of affairs even trickier for Whittaker is that Aliskerov could be just as dangerous because the undefeated Chimaev. The Russian sports activities a 15-1 document together with first-round finishes in his first two UFC fights and his lone loss got here to Chimaev again in 2019. If Aliskerov makes quick work of Whittaker, don’t be stunned if he earns a championship alternative quickly.

In different primary card motion, heavyweight contenders Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov face off within the co-main occasion, Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez meet in a screwy middleweight matchup, common middleweight Shara Magomedov fights short-notice debutant Antonio Trocoli, and Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir collide in a battle of sunshine heavyweight veterans.

What: UFC Saudi Arabia

The place: Kingdom Area in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

When: Saturday, June 22. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, adopted by a five-fight primary card at 3 p.m. ET additionally on ABC and ESPN+.


(Numbers in parentheses point out standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Robert Whittaker (4) vs. Ikram Aliskerov

How are all of us feeling about Robert Whittaker nowadays?

I feel Whittaker has made a powerful assertion that he’s too expert and too robust for 90 % of the middleweight division to deal with, as evidenced by how he outclassed the likes of Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori, and Jared Cannonier, regardless of his in-cage mileage including up. The Dricus du Plessis loss was eye-opening, however was it actually indicative of Whittaker’s limitations or was that only a poor fashion matchup for him?

Ikram Aliskerov is barely a slight underdog based on DraftKings Sportsbook, which tells you simply how extremely the oddsmakers consider Aliskerov regardless of him having a tenth of the UFC expertise that Whittaker has and the truth that he’s taking this battle on quick discover. Heading into the most important battle of his profession, I’m guessing Aliskerov would have appreciated extra time to arrange for Whittaker particularly.

Nonetheless, I can’t assist however really feel that the fates are working in opposition to Whittaker right here. First, lacking out on the possibility to beat the undefeated Chimaev—a feat that may have all however assured him a shot to regain the middleweight belt—after which being compelled to tackle an opponent who has way more to realize from their matchup than he does. Aliskerov isn’t as one-dimensional because the likes of Costa or Vettori both. Not solely is he an important wrestler, as you’d anticipate from his Dagestani background, he has a potent combination of persistence and energy on the toes.

Aliskerov solely wants a sliver of a gap to land a tough shot and even the sturdy Whittaker can solely take so a lot of these. I see Aliskerov shaking off a gradual begin earlier than pouring on the stress and discovering a end in Spherical 2 or 3.

Choose: Aliskerov

Sergei Pavlovich (3) vs. Alexander Volkov (7)

I anticipate Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov to comply with the same rhythm to my Whittaker-Aliskerov prediction, however with the top arriving a lot sooner.

You already know what Pavlovich is right here to do. He’s going to return ahead together with his fingers primed, stroll you down, and as soon as he’s inside vary he’s swinging for the fences. As a rule he’s the hammer, not the nail, and previous to the loss to Tom Aspinall he’d racked up six straight first-round finishes. In reality, Pavlovich hasn’t seen a second spherical in seven years.

Volkov isn’t any stranger to defusing heavy hitters, starting from Tai Tuivasa to Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Alistair Overeem. He makes use of his attain so nicely that although he’s really giving up just a few inches to Pavlovich, he ought to nonetheless have the benefit after they’re working from mid-range. It’s simply that he in all probability can’t preserve Pavlovich at that vary for lengthy.

It’s the underrated quickness of Pavlovich that’s actually going to present Volkov issues. After touchdown just a few good long-distance pictures early on, he’s going to seek out himself together with his again to the fence and Pavlovich bearing down on him. Then it’s wham, bam, and you recognize the remainder.

Pavlovich by first-round knockout.

Choose: Pavlovich

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Get it collectively, Kelvin Gastelum.

Today, any evaluation of a Gastelum battle requires a point out of his battle with slicing weight. Even supporters of the veteran must be annoyed together with his failure to handle the dimensions at this level and questioning how these issues have an effect on him on battle evening. Respectfully, there could possibly be any variety of elements that interfered with Gastelum’s preparation and we actually want him the most effective, however if you happen to require very best circumstances to chop right down to a required weight, that weight class in all probability isn’t for you.

With that grievance out of the best way, I’m going in opposition to my higher judgement right here and choosing Gastelum to attain a detailed resolution win over Daniel Rodriguez. Fashion-wise they’re an excellent match, however Gastelum’s skill to push the tempo for quarter-hour is his greatest asset. It’s completely doable that Rodriguez jabs and counters Gastelum into oblivion, too, there’s not so much separating the fighters right here.

Gastelum’s exercise will get him the nod as we make a journey to splitty metropolis.

Choose: Gastelum

Shara Magomedov vs. Antonio Trocoli

First, let’s share the reduction that Antonio Trocoli should be feeling now that he’s this shut to creating his UFC dream turn into a actuality. Trocoli has suffered quite a few begins and stops in his journey since having a Contender Sequence win overturned attributable to a constructive take a look at for the banned substance nandrolone. That is the third or fourth time that he’s been booked to make his debut, I’ve really misplaced depend at this level. He even missed out on the possibility to get smashed by Aliskerov final Saturday!

However he’s right here now and as soon as once more finds himself in a matchup the place he’s a heavy underdog, this time in opposition to extremely vaunted striker Shara Magomedov. The hype round “Shara Bullet” is substantial, stemming from his dynamic hanging fashion, quirky persona, and that signature proper eye (the results of a years-old harm). Magomedov confronted a stiff take a look at in his UFC debut, profitable a choice in opposition to a pesky Bruno Silva, so we’ll see if Trocoli proves to be a extra entertaining fashion matchup.

Trocoli has some grappling, however at a ginormous 6-foot-5, his primary technique is to make use of his 82-inch attain to befuddle his opponents on the toes. As you’d anticipate, that dimension comes with some disadvantages, noticeably within the velocity division. The springy Magomedov gained’t take lengthy to determine Trocoli’s firing fee and when he realizes that Trocoli can’t match him strike-for-strike, he’ll search for the end.

This massive tree is about to fall down.

Choose: Magomedov

Johnny Walker (8) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (15)

The primary card opener pits two of the sunshine heavyweight division’s most unpredictable fighters in opposition to each other. Johnny Walker appeared like he was turning a nook after a rocky begin to his time with SBG Eire, solely to fall to the superior Magomed Ankalaev; Volkan Oezdemir retains profitable simply sufficient to maintain up-and-comers from taking his spot, however he’s in any other case misplaced a step as he approaches 30 professional bouts.

The excellent news is that none of that issues since these two are anticipated to hit one another actually arduous, probably so arduous that one doesn’t get again up. Walker isn’t any stranger to thrilling knockout strikes and Oezdemir flashed indicators of being a lightning-fast finisher when he first began with the UFC.

Ought to Oezdemir go to his wrestling to focus on one among of Walker’s supposed weaknesses? It may work, however on the similar time Oezdemir could wish to belief himself to seek out Walker’s chin as many others have prior to now. If goofball Walker reveals up, just a few arduous pictures from Oezdemir may straighten him out in a rush.

However, Walker’s typically unorthodox strategy to offense may have Oezdemir’s workforce scrambling for options. Sure, Walker has turn into a extra standard fighter, however he nonetheless reveals flashes of the wild man that endeared him to followers within the first place.

Give me Oezdemir by resolution.

Choose: Oezdemir

Preliminaries

Nasrat Haqparast def. Jared Gordon

Muhammad Naimov def. Felipe Lima

Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Nicolas Dalby

Muin Gafurov def. Kyung Ho Kang

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov def. Brendson Ribeiro

Chang Ho Lee def. Xiao Long

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