Monday Mailbag: Who will end the reign of King Leon Edwards?

UFC 296 went down on Saturday in Las Vegas and the ultimate combat card of 2023 gave us a lot to speak about. Leon Edwards defended his title, Colby Covington appeared impotent, Alexandre Pantoja retains on successful, Shavkat Rakhmonov made a press release, and Josh Emmett virtually killed a man. There’s lots to debate, so let’s speak about all of it.

Subsequent up

I suppose we’ll kick issues off proper on the high with what comes subsequent for the welterweight champion. And whereas I might have been fairly stunned for this to be the case even a month in the past, it appears clear that the reply is Belal Muhammad.

Let’s be clear, Muhammad deserves to be subsequent in line, but it surely simply appeared so unlikely that he would really get a title shot. He’s not significantly standard, Edwards continues to no-sell him (idiotically, I would add), and there have been two rising welterweight stars set to compete on UFC 296 that had a very good shot at usurping him. However someway every thing broke proper for Belal and he’s the apparent frontrunner proper now.

Edwards’ efficiency was totally underwhelming and any notion of shifting to 185 is totally off the desk, Ian Garry bought sick and withdrew from the cardboard, and Shavkat delivered a terrific efficiency that someway bothered folks (extra on that later) and apparently entered his combat with an ankle harm that wants surgical procedure. Technique of elimination leaves Muhammad within the spot that meritocracy ought to have put him in all alongside: Ready on a date for the UFC’s return to England, as a result of that’s the place the subsequent welterweight title combat is occurring. I hope his passport is updated.

Shavkat Rakhmonov

As laid out above, Shavkat might be taking a look at a while away as a consequence of harm, however that really works out for him right here. Within the absence of different contenders, Shavkat has already finished sufficient to warrant a title shot, and so, whereas Leon and Belal settle up, Shavkat can merely wait on the sidelines with dibs on the winner. And if I needed to guess proper now I’d say Leon wins that combat, so let’s speak about Leon vs. Shavkat.

Shavkat can completely stand with Leon. Leon is an excellent striker however he has a significant weak spot in that he’s so outrageously low-volume and never essentially the most harmful one-shot artist (I do know he has the pinnacle kick and it’s nice, but it surely’s additionally one combat in 26) that it permits people who find themselves worse than him to nonetheless be aggressive. (Mike) Heck, simply have a look at Saturday! Statistically, Covington was proper there with him and Colby is a worse striker than Shavkat. Shavkat can completely compete with Leon on the toes and possibly even win there.

As for the bottom recreation, full credit score to Edwards. He has grow to be a really robust defensive and offensive grappler, however I’m nonetheless placing my cash on Shavkat on the ground. He’s the distinctive type of grappler that not solely has dominant management spots however he threatens a end at virtually each second of the trade. Simply have a look at the way in which he ended Stephen Thompson. “Wonderboy” had by no means been submitted in his complete profession and Shavkat simply effortlessly choked him as soon as issues hit the bottom. He’s a reduce above on this regard and if Leon will get placed on his again, he’s in absolute peril.

However shout out to all of the individuals who have been completely satisfied Colby would dominate the grappling as a result of he was a D-1 All-American 12 years in the past and Leon is British. Technique to actually have nuanced takes about issues.

Finish of the Leon Period

So if I needed to handicap it, Shavkat wouldn’t be my first alternative, solely as a result of, as mentioned, Belal will get first crack at it, and whereas I suppose Leon will win that combat, I’m in no way certain of that.

Belal has a legit shot to take the title off Leon for 2 causes. First, he’s darn good. The person has one loss in his final 15 fights and has put collectively 5 dominant wins for the reason that no-contest with Leon two years in the past. He’s well-rounded, has glorious cardio, and pushes a a lot larger tempo than Leon. All of that makes him a reside underdog. However the actual kicker is that Leon is a fighter begging to be upset.

I harp on this lots on the varied exhibits from this web site, however “preventing protected” is a foul strategy to combat. Not from an leisure perspective (although it’s additionally that), however purely from a recreation principle standpoint. Give it some thought like this: In MMA, each second, each events have an opportunity to right away win or lose. The shorter the combat is, the much less alternative exists for each events. But when one social gathering shouldn’t be a menace for sudden and quick victory by advantage of the way in which they combat (Leon), then the longer the combat goes, the extra alternative there’s for that social gathering to lose. The most secure plan of action in any combat is to finish it as quickly as doable. Simply have a look at what almost occurred with Nate Diaz! (Mike) Heck, look what might’ve occurred with Colby. Colby received the fifth spherical, and with a cadre of horrible judges, Leon might’ve been robbed on the playing cards. It’s not like he did lots in any of these first 4 rounds. By refusing to place the pedal down and actually begin going after Covington when he was not doing something in any respect, Leon created extra alternative for failure.

It’s actually, actually, actually arduous to be excellent for 25 minutes. To this point Leon has pulled it off, but when he retains attempting to eke out wins, issues go awry sooner slightly than later. Take a look at Israel Adesanya. He tried to be excellent in opposition to Alex Pereira and misplaced his belt because of this. Then after they ran it again, he invited extra exchanges, opened himself as much as getting hit extra so he might land his personal pictures, and slept Pereira within the second spherical. Belal could be the kind of opponent you may get away with this point-fighting model in opposition to, however Shavkat is precisely the other of that, and if Leon doesn’t get somewhat meaner in there, Shavkat goes to be the one to upend him.

Colby Covington

The obvious reply for that is that Colby Covington is 35 years previous and hadn’t fought in virtually two years. That’s not precisely younger and that’s precisely a very long time off from the cage. For all Dominick Cruz doesn’t imagine in it, we’ve eyeballs and we’ve seen it loads of occasions: Ring rust is actual. For the primary two rounds, Colby appeared like a person in a fist combat who hadn’t been in a single shortly and was attempting to determine it out once more. Combating isn’t precisely like driving a motorbike.

On high of that, being previous makes every thing tougher and I’m inclined to imagine that was a significant participant as nicely. Father Time comes for us all, and whereas some males can stave it off higher than others, the indicators are normally the identical throughout the board when it occurs: Reactions sluggish, explosivity diminishes, and hesitancy turns into obvious. As you grow old you continue to can do the stuff you as soon as did, but it surely’s slower, tougher, much less. The mind doesn’t set off as quick anymore and so that you would possibly see a window to shoot a takedown, as an illustration, however by the point your physique reacts, that window is gone and so that you don’t even attempt.

Covington’s recreation is one that may age gracefully, to some extent. As a result of he’s not closely reliant on fast-twitch muscle mass and reactions, and since cardio tends to be one thing you possibly can preserve at any age, he could make hay for years to come back, simply not on the highest ranges. Take a look at guys like Clay Guida and Jim Miller, of their 40s and nonetheless getting high quality wins, simply not over elite opposition. That’s the place Colby appears headed.

Stardom

Yeah, so Ian Garry is the reply right here. I do know he’s getting it within the tooth proper now on-line, however the people who find themselves doing so are actual troglodytes, and that could be giving them an excessive amount of credit score. Garry is the dude at welterweight proper now with the correct mixture of character and expertise to elevate the division as much as being among the many most high-profile within the promotion.

I really like Shavkat however the man shouldn’t be dynamite on the mic and Leon appears decided to be the least attention-grabbing model of himself he can presumably be always (when the very best quote the UFC can placed on a promo poster for you is, “Let’s see who’s next,” you’re in determined want of a charisma transplant), so each of them are out. Belal ain’t it and he’s too previous to have a long term on the high anyway. Sean Brady has essentially the most generic identify within the historical past of fight (give it some thought, I guess you went to highschool with a Sean Brady). And everybody else is previous it already. Jack Della Maddalena I suppose is within the dialog, however he’s additionally not essentially the most attention-grabbing man on the earth with a mic in his fingers.

Love him or hate him, Garry will get reactions each time he’s in a room, and he can combat his ass off. He’s the very best guess.

Alexandre Pantoja.

Rattling, that is already lengthy. We’re gonna pace run the remainder of these so this isn’t 5,000 phrases.

Pantoja goes to combat the winner of Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi. If Moreno wins, that’s type of lame (since he’s 3-0 over him and all), however nobody will complain as a result of their combat earlier this 12 months is likely one of the better of the 12 months. And Albazi will deserve it if he will get the win.

No, Tagir Ulanbekov shouldn’t be the actual deal. Soldi win over Cody Durden and a gaudy file, however he’s already 32, and 32 at flyweight is like 36 at welterweight. However he can in all probability crack the highest 10 with good matchmaking.

Bryce Mitchell

Truthfully, I wish to see him retire. Josh Emmett’s KO of Mitchell is likely one of the scariest ones I’ve ever seen in MMA, and I’ve been following this sport intently for 20 years. It’s a life-changing knockout. I had some official fear that this might be a type of issues that occurs in boxing the place the fighter finally wakes up and is okay on combat evening, however later one thing catastrophic occurs. Mitchell doesn’t receives a commission sufficient to tackle that danger.

That being stated, I do know he received’t retire and that’s tremendous. It’s his life and he will get to decide on the best way to reside it. However he shouldn’t come again for a full 12 months. The physique isn’t meant to maintain harm like that. Give it loads of time to recuperate.

Cody Garbrandt

Congrats to Garbrandt who confirmed off some classic kind, knocking out Brian Kelleher within the first spherical, however for all these “No Love” followers who’re pumped about Cody being again, I’d maintain your horses a bit.

I stated heading into this combat that it was excellent matchmaking as a result of it was an apparent setup for Garbrandt to point out out, and that’s precisely what occurred. Keller isn’t significantly harmful on the toes and Cody is far quicker, so there was actually not a variety of methods for this to go fallacious for the previous champion. Nevertheless, if he will get what he requested for after the combat — a matchup with former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo — that’s going to be an issue. Garbrandt’s deadly flaw is that he merely can’t stand as much as heavy fireplace coming again at him, and buddy, let me inform you, Figgy Smalls has that firepower. He additionally does have a chin than can face up to Cody’s pictures, sooooooo, it’s in all probability not gonna go as nicely for “No Love” his subsequent trip.

5 Rounds

And to shut all of it out, a fast hitter part.

1. Perhaps somewhat bit? Casey O’Neill remains to be younger, so there’s loads of upside, however Ariane Lipski type of ran by way of her and she or he’s had her personal struggles. I’m prepared to imagine, although, that this was extra a case of Lipski has turned a nook (she’s 3-0 in 2023) and that O’Neill simply bought on the fallacious finish of issues. However she didn’t look good.
2. It’s robust as a result of most refs aren’t good, however he’s in all probability in pole place in the meanwhile. Tognoni’s absolute refusal to do something about fouling is infuriating. He warned Ulanbekov about 43 occasions for toes within the cage, and did nothing about it. Simply saved saying don’t do this. Dude didn’t even do the silly factor the place they go slap the hand/foot away from the fence. Simply talking into the wind for no cause.
3. Yep. I had a second of pause the place I assumed there was an opportunity we simply witnessed the primary demise within the octagon. Finally, that may occur (regulation of enormous numbers), and I’m undecided we’re prepared for it when it does. Thank goodness it wasn’t Saturday.
4. Commentary wasn’t good Saturday so I tuned out a bunch. Undecided what that is in reference to.
5. Paddy Pimblett beat Tony Ferguson in 2023. I’m actually undecided what meaning. It’s greater than nothing however not much more than that. Can’t knock him for it although. He did his job and, frankly, dealt with issues with grace. Gotta respect that. And most significantly he put a long way between him and the Jared Gordon theft. Now it’s again to enterprise for “The Baddy.”

Thanks for studying, and thanks for everybody who despatched in Tweets! Do you’ve got any burning questions on issues not less than considerably associated to fight sports activities? Then you definately’re in luck, as a result of you possibly can ship your Tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I’ll reply my favourite ones! Doesn’t matter in the event that they’re topical or insane, simply as long as they’re good. Thanks once more and see y’all subsequent week.