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UFC Vegas 95 predictions – MMA Fighting

Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac, a rematch 4 years within the making!

OK, present of fingers. What number of of you didn’t know Saturday’s UFC Vegas 95 headliners had fought earlier than? Be sincere. Regardless, when you’ve two top-10 heavyweights able to go, you’ve your self a most important occasion within the ESPN UFC period, so buckle up.

Tybura has performed all of it within the UFC besides combat for a title. He simply retains chugging alongside into his twentieth look for the promotion, having gained greater than he’s misplaced competing in opposition to a few of the greatest heavyweights of his technology. That is additionally Tybura’s third straight Struggle Evening most important occasion, so he must be doing one thing proper.

As unusual because it sounds, Spivac stays one of many division’s most intriguing fighters, with a 7-4 report at simply 29 years outdated. That’s youthful in heavyweight years! Since shedding to Tybura 4 years in the past, Spivac has gained six of eight, along with his setbacks coming by the hands of Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall. There’s no disgrace in that, however it’s honest to ask whether or not “Polar Bear” will ever surpass expectations.

Different most important card highlights embody a penultimate bout banger between Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal, bantamweight veteran Chris Gutierrez welcoming the undefeated Quang Le to the UFC, and Yana Santos in a do-or-die matchup in opposition to Chelsea Chandler (who didn’t come close to making weight on Friday).

What: UFC Vegas 95

The place: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Aug. 10. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, adopted by a six-fight most important card at 7 p.m. ET additionally on ESPN and ESPN+.


(Numbers in parentheses point out standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)

Marcin Tybura (8) vs. Serghei Spivac (10)

Once I re-watch Serghei Spivac’s first crack at Marcin Tybura, I don’t see an under-skilled fighter, only one who’s inexperienced. Spivac has improved and developed bodily since then. I’m choosing him to earn a measure of revenge and creep additional up the heavyweight ranks.

Tybura isn’t a veteran to be counted out, after all. He’s the epitome of workmanlike. You possibly can shrug at his most important occasion bookings all you want, however the 38-year-old continues to seek out methods to win and to maintain cashing UFC checks. There’s one thing admirable about that.

May the thicker Tybura bully his approach to one other resolution win? His grappling has taken him far in some troublesome matchups, however Spivac is not any slouch on the bottom both. I simply really feel like Spivac — 25 years outdated and in simply his third UFC combat when he first fought Tybura — was schooled by an older, wiser, opponent. Lesson realized.

Spivac’s enhancements on the toes and maturity give him the sting on this rematch. After a sluggish first spherical that sees him warding off Tybura’s takedowns, Spivac turns up the warmth in Spherical 2 and places Tybura away with strikes.

Decide: Spivac

Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal

Love that Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal are getting such a excessive placement on the cardboard, hate that Mariscal missed weight. That gaffe may have a cloth affect on this combat as a lot of Mariscal’s recreation relies on having the ability to stress for quarter-hour. Is the miss an indication that he’s not in tip-top form, or did he eschew the stresses of a weight reduce to verify he’d be much less drained for combat night time? It’s unattainable to say for certain.

If Mariscal is his standard self, that is his combat to lose. Jackson is hard, however traditionally not nice combating on the again foot. A sluggish begin may show expensive for the 36-year-old, and if Mariscal hurts him early, this might be over within the opening 5 minutes.

That stated, Jackson is at all times in nice form and he’s not going to take Mariscal’s weigh-in mistake flippantly. Search for Jackson to make a degree of being first, placing Mariscal off-balance to goad him right into a mistake. Jackson is harmful when he will get his offense going and nobody needs to be shocked if he turns into the primary to pressure Mariscal to faucet out.

I’m anticipating a enjoyable back-and-forth battle that sees each fighters threatening to complete, solely to be foiled by their opponent’s sturdiness. Then it goes to Jackson incomes a detailed win on the playing cards.

Decide: Jackson

Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

I’m undecided should you’ve heard, however Danny “LeftHand2God” Barlow has a fairly nice left hand.

How the orthodox Nikolay Veretennikov offers with Barlow’s methodical southpaw fashion will dictate a lot of how this combat goes. Veretennikov handily handled lefty Ashley Reece in his most up-to-date win, however Reece’s attain is 10 inches shorter than Barlow’s and his energy isn’t comparable. This can be a complete new ballgame.

Barlow’s offense revolves extra round single photographs than combos, which may go away openings for Veretennikov to shut the space. Veretennikov isn’t precisely recognized for his brawling fashion both, so this may seemingly be extra of a chess match because the fighters battle to determine vary.

Thus far, Barlow has lived as much as the hype, so I see no purpose to doubt him on this matchup. That monster left makes all of the distinction and Veretennikov stepping in on lower than two weeks’ discover restricted his time to organize for Barlow’s setups. He’ll do his greatest given the circumstances, however it’s solely a matter of time till Barlow connects along with his signature weapon and ends this.

Decide: Barlow

Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le

Wild card time!

LFA veteran Quang Le steps in on lower than per week’s discover for Javid Basharat, which is a positive swap for Chris Gutierrez on paper. Quang is totally unproven outdoors of his restricted regional expertise and he’s taking an infinite leap up in competitors right here. I don’t like his probabilities.

Give this to Quang, he’s not timid. If something, Gutierrez must be cautious to not let Quang rush him down and catch him with one thing random. Quang has nice hand velocity, so search for him to hold round within the UFC simply based mostly on his potential to incite brawls.

He’s going to have a hell of a time closing the space in opposition to Gutierrez although. Gutierrez has fought higher strikers than Quang, who simply doesn’t have the standup vocabulary to toss something at Gutierrez that he hasn’t seen earlier than. Gutierrez merely chops Quang’s legs to bits whereas the UFC newcomer continues to be adjusting to the brilliant lights of the octagon.

Props to Quang for taking this on quick discover, however Gutierrez takes him out within the first.

Decide: Gutierrez

Yana Santos (9) vs. Chelsea Chandler

Significantly, what ought to we make of Chelsea Chandler?

The previous Invicta FC standout got here to the UFC with loads of promise, solely to make headlines for all of the incorrect causes. She grew to become a meme in her second UFC combat when she actually ran away from Norma Dumont after which adopted that up with a pair of weight misses, together with an egregious five-pound miss on Friday. On a constructive observe, she seemed good in opposition to Josiane Nunes in a matchup that appeared destined to finish along with her flat on the canvas.

So I don’t know.

Yana Santos is in a critical hunch, so she’s not probably the most inspiring choose on this card. Ability-wise, she ought to have greater than sufficient within the toolbox to foil Chandler. Nobody would accuse Santos of missing within the exercise division as she’s continually on the transfer, continually on the lookout for angles and methods to muddy up the combat. The place Chandler has the benefit is in uncooked energy, which might be the distinction if Santos has misplaced a step in 12 months 15 of her combating profession.

My intestine tells me Santos outworks Chandler for a call, however it’s onerous for me to disregard the dimensions benefit Chandler may have on combat night time. Chandler avoids a straight putting battle and secures just a few well timed takedowns to win a call.

Decide: Chandler

Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou

Toshiomi Kazama is uhhh, the way you say, “not good?” And Charalampos Grigoriou is also typically described as “not good.” This isn’t an excellent most important card opener.

I ought to take that final sentence again. Should you’re on the lookout for somebody to get brained, then this opener is ideal, truly. Kazama has developed a advantageous popularity as somebody whose head is a magnet for onerous punches, whereas Grigoriou’s putting protection has holes of its personal. If this goes to the scorecards, we must always all really feel let down.

Possibly I’m being too harsh on Kazama, however it simply appears like Grigoriou is, the way you say, “barely much less dangerous,” and that would make all of the distinction right here. I’m going Grigoriou by knockout, both by capitalizing on a chaotic trade or tackling Kazama and ending with ground-and-pound.

Decide: Grigoriou

Preliminaries

Karol Rosa (8) def. Pannie Kianzad (10)

Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams

Youssef Zalal def. Jarno Errens

Stephanie Luciano def. Talita Alencar

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